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Why Begin A Season Well?
The beginning of a season is critical in determining who wins the league and who gets relegated. Whether it be in the Premier League, La Liga, the Bundesliga or any other top division of football in the world.
With respect to odds and betting, it is essential to do a complete analysis of how teams perform at the beginning of a season. The key metrics to focus on are games won (home and away), goals scored, goals conceded, injuries, fixtures, management and bookie favorites.
Fact: Only one club has lost on an opening day and gone on to win the EPL title. That club is Manchester United and they managed to do it three times.
Fans are always eager to place their bets during the start of a League season. After two months of waiting and summer transfers, speculative fans can already predict Liverpool or Tottenham (let’s say) winning the league.
In reality, it does make sense to wait out a few games before placing bets. Especially during the beginning of a season. The first 8-10 games in a season give you a real indication on who can (or will) win the premier league.
The only problem with waiting to place your bets is that the profit margins for favorable bets constantly drop. That means less profit for the sake of lesser risk.
For example, Leicester’s odds on winning the title during the 2015-16 season was 5000/1. By the end of January, those odds dropped to 33/1 which is still pretty good considering they were in pole position to win the league. By April, those odds changed again to 1/5.
But no one expected Leicester to win the league at the beginning of a season. Had people waited for a few games, they would have made a good lump-sum betting on Leicester City.
Bets placed on title favorites at the beginning of a season sometimes do go on to win the league. Sometimes, the payout on a favorite team winning drops after the start of a season if that team performs well. It becomes almost impossible to make a good profit margin as the payout is negligible.